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2016-10-13

5233捕鱼达人全屏|一

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渔网捕鱼 www.tvlr.com.cn,  塞拉山区以南约4小时车程的旧金山湾区、中部以及南部的洛杉矶大都会地区本周末将有豪雨来临,大雨将带来洪水、泥石流等。  “降低工业污染,改变环巢湖生态,就必须调整产业结构。

在批评这次几个地方的网络约租车管理办法征求意见稿时,不少评论声音认为,要保护共享经济,这个办法草案与总理提出的发展分享经济相悖。

比如这样的看法:把专车服务看成是出租车,用管出租车的方法去管专车,这是倒退。

FT中文网前日刊发一篇《共享经济光环褪去,独角兽疲态尽显》,把滴滴也列为共享经济模式的公司。

但事实上,这类看法是不怎么能成立的。因为现在的滴滴,与共享经济的关系,已然不大。滴滴,其实的的确确是一个“出租车公司”。

滴滴出行主要是这几个业务:

滴滴出租,到了今天,主要是和地方上出租车公司的合作。供给方是职业出租车司机,这不是共享经济。

滴滴专车/快车,专车价格较高,快车较为便宜,两者的差别主要在车型。这一块是从所谓“共享经济”起步的,但今天已经越来越职业化。原因后述。

滴滴顺风车,这才是标准的分享经济。然而,没有证据表明,滴滴顺风车是滴滴出行重要的业务板块。这一块的份额占比,应该不会超过三分之一。

当然,滴滴上还有一些探索性业务,比如滴滴巴士,这个属于枝节,不是滴滴的核心业务。

可能是我视野不够,我没有看到在滴滴的专车/快车平台上,有多少司机属于兼差赚外快(也就是有本职工作,偶尔拉一些客人),有多少司机属于专职。

根据个人使用经验,专职司机并不在少数。

讨论意见稿出来后,滴滴声称,仅在上海地区,有注册司机四十万名,只有一万名具有上海户籍。滴滴的意思是,以后能符合条件的在上海地区提供专车/快车服务的,在一万名之下,还有三十九万名,都将失去部分甚至是全部收入来源。

这个比例给了我一个启发,那就是在滴滴平台上,职业司机恐怕已呈大比例状态。

无论如何,在上海的非户籍人口与户籍人口都不会高达39:1。这种情况只有两个解释。第一个解释是,在上海,非户籍人士特别喜欢“共享”他们的汽车。这个解释看着很荒唐。第二个解释就是,很多非户籍人士的的确确把这个当成专职工作了。

由此推论,滴滴出行平台,是由高比例的专职司机提供驾驶服务的平台。这家公司,就是一种出租车公司,不过,它的经营模式,与传统出租车公司,有很大的区别。

假设滴滴没有受到政府的任何管制,它会怎么做?

可想而知的是,会更大规模更快速地扩展合作司机的队伍。与传统出租车公司相比,它的一大优势就是“轻资产”:在与司机合作的过程中,它并没有背上沉重的资产折旧负担。故而它的发展速度,会快很多。

由于汽车成本由司机本人负担,所以,司机的收入并不会高大哪里去。滴滴在取得市场的寡头垄断地位之后,也不会长期采用高额补贴的方法。对于司机来说,收入可能比出租车司机略高,但不会是什么月入几万的主。

滴滴这种出租车公司,除去它需要一支员工队伍来完成一些后台运营目标外,它大部分的劳动力(也就是司机)关系很大一部分是属于“联盟”性质,而不是“雇佣”性质。

所以,它是一种新型的出租车汽车公司,它的生产关系,与传统出租车公司完全不同,我个人的看法是,先进很多。

事实上,大规模的非雇佣制劳动力所组成的公司,并没有太好的先例(平台型公司,比如阿里的淘宝天猫和这个有点像,但还是有很大不同。消费者在淘宝某店家购买了商品,ta很清楚不是向淘宝购买,但出行者在滴滴上叫车,ta会认定服务是滴滴提供的)。这里面要探索的东西很多——比如说,劳动者的社会保障问题——并不是只有一个什么出租车管理办法能一劳永逸的。

但它依然是一种出租车公司,政府把它比照出租车管理,并没有什么不妥。

制约滴滴的,主要就是:城市道路容量问题。

对出租车颁发牌照,虽然这里面有很多猫腻,但你不得不承认的是,这本身并非一项恶政。出租车如果不是持牌经营,城市交通情况会大幅恶化。

在全世界,公共交通优先发展,这是共识。

美国、日本、香港,出租车价格都十分昂贵。比如大阪机场到大阪市区的出租车价格可以超过上海飞往大阪的机票价格。

如果不是有太急的事,或者太过土豪,一般人都选择铁路(新干线)从机场前往市区。

对出租车要进行遏制式发展,恐怕是城市交通管理者思考的前提。

滴滴既然是一种出租车公司,那么,它就理所当然地被视为:要遏制发展。

这个征求意见稿里各种限制,都是比照出租车来的。

北京上海的出租车管理办法明文规定出租车司机必须本地户籍,出租车当然是本地牌照。而广州并无本地户籍规定。于是,落到滴滴上,就成了北京上海专车司机必须本地户籍,而广州则放开。

但从舆论上看,人们显然是偏袒滴滴的。

包括uber,在全球都有不少支持者。

这里面很重要的一个原因在于需求的事实存在。而这种需求,在uber、滴滴这类公司出现之前,并没有得到满足。这个需求就是:出租车与私家车中的一个GAP(裂缝)。

在中国,这个GAP尤其明显。

中国的公共交通,无论是公共汽车还是地铁,与“舒适”两个字距离非常远。出租车本来应该提供舒适服务,但实际上也不能达成。我不得不说一句的是,中国出租车的价格相对来说,略微便宜。尤其是北上广深杭这种国际性大都市。

所以人们疯狂购买私家车。当物质条件到达一定程度后,舒适性很重要。但很快,私家车也不能说是“舒适”了。大都市的交通情况恶化,使得开车并不是一件多么舒心的事。

更何况,私家车投入毕竟较大,很多上班才几年的年轻人,未必能承担得起。一些大城市,对私家车也使用摇号或竞拍牌照的方式去限制,使得很多人欲购车也不得。

专车就提供了这个空档的需求。更何况早期专车由于各方的竞争,还有大量的补贴,使得价格似乎也与出租车持平甚至是低廉。

城市交通恶化,对于坐车的人来说,只有一件事需要去做:出门再提早一些。至于在车上,乘客的身份使得ta能干很多事,包括睡觉、小憩、看看朋友圈聊聊天。

交通恶化,是每个人都需要承担的,这可以说是一个公共问题。但出行舒适,这个可和自己密切相关。交通恶化所形成的负反馈,是长期的。明天我出门是不是舒适,这是短期速达的反馈。

舒适这两个字,不仅仅仰仗车的本身硬件(车型),更重要的是车的状态,司机的服务态度。故而,舒适和服务可评价密切关联。

评价能起到效果,其机制在于滴滴和司机不是雇佣关系,也就是滴滴在司机和乘客之间,更大程度上是一个裁判的角色。

有不少司机曾经抱怨过滴滴对乘客的偏向,这类抱怨在一些媒体文章上有所体现。

但恐怕这种偏向是合理的,因为服务业天然就应该是偏向接受服务的消费者的。

这就是联盟性质的企业,和雇佣性质的企业非常大的差别。

滴滴有点类似出行领域中的淘宝店,它的运营人员某种意义上就是淘宝上的店小二,其根本立场在于服务需求者,而不是服务供给者。

具有一定效果的评价体系,是滴滴车感觉上会更舒适的原因,因为司机服务态度会更好,车况会更佳。

滴滴的整套服务,从叫车开始,到送达目的地,包括车行路径,都是数字化的。这意味着服务可追踪可回溯。投诉司机绕路,有很强的证据可供验看,而且滴滴还事先给了你一个参考价格。

至于安全方面,虽然也有零星不安全的事发生,但总体上而言,它未必比本地出租车不安全,应该说更安全才是。

这次各地的讨论意见稿,根据地方上情况不同,略有差别。但总体来说,都是把滴滴看成一个“高端出租车公司”。

这对滴滴很不利,这会影响它的“指数型增长”的目标。因为一旦高端,必然市场不大。

出行市场以价格从低到高排列,目前是这样的:

公共交通(公车/地铁)、出租车、专车/快车、租车(无司机)和私家车。

要让政府放弃公交优先的策略是不可能的,也是不符合城市优选规划的。

但滴滴的联盟模式的确比传统出租车模式更好,也更有效。规模效应将降低成本,如果滴滴要自己采购车辆的话。

所以,我个人的结论很清楚:

比照出租车进行管理并无不妥,但具体政策制定上,与出租车相比,应更偏向专车/快车服务。

故而,考虑到一些大城市本身对外地牌有林林总总的限行措施,大城市的本地车牌要求是可行的,但户籍上理应放宽,车型上更应该降低标准。舒适服务和具体车型的关系并不大,1.6L的a级车未必不能提供舒适服务。

总的说来,滴滴的确已经是一家出租车公司,但它的生产关系比传统出租车公司很先进,联盟性质的公司组织,规模更容易快速发展,服务体系也会更优化。

滴滴所提供的租车服务,其舒适性与私家车更为接近,加之作为乘客可以省心省力,服务的可追踪可回溯也对相对可靠安全提供保障,长期来看,的确存在可能抑制私家车购买(主要是家庭第二台用车),从而减缓交通拥堵。

政府将其视为一种出租车公司进行管理并无太大不妥之处,但要把它限定为“高端出租车公司”,可能就是错的。

当下的出租车服务太过低端,以它为准绳视滴滴为高端从而去遏制滴滴的发展,但舒适度需求依然存在,只能将大众导向购买私家车之途,交通状况长期而言,只会更趋恶化。

额外的话

1,关于滴滴司机的职业化,其实有篇文章大家可以看看,公号“博望志”九日刊发过一篇题为“我是网约车司机,这是我的故事”,可以从一个侧面反映出滴滴司机的确在职业化,而且,收入并不怎么高。至少当下,月入上万,已经离他们远去了。

2,职业化与平台合作,并不是共享经济,这里面没有什么“闲置的东西、时间、精力”与他人分享。

说起来,安利这种直销公司,可能还有很多直销员是兼差做的,虽然卖出来的货是安利的,但兼差直销员显然利用了“闲置的时间与精力”,安利可算共享经济公司?

我以前做过几年证券经纪,其实有很多证券经纪人都不是证券公司雇佣的,有些客户也知道这个事,无非就是举着证券公司牌子,用的是证券公司交易通道、证券公司给你开的户,实质上不是证券公司员工有啥关系?这算不算分享经济啊?

3、公号“政见CNPolitics”前日发过一篇文章,题为“为什么政府不应用出租车思路管理网约车”。讲到了凭信商品问题、开放型市场问题、薄弱市场问题,但独独没有讲到城市道路问题。如果从城市道路问题这个角度看,汽车运营服务并不是全然的开放型市场。

4、美国联邦上诉法院近日判决称,Uber和出租车是不同类型的服务,因此可以对两者采取不同的监管方式。判决里有一个类比:大部分城镇要求养犬人办理犬证,但养猫却不用办理猫证。两种动物之间有所差异。通常而言,宠物犬体型更大、更强壮,比猫更有攻击性,因此会造成许多人的畏惧。此外,犬只可能咬人,在户外狂吠,发出噪声。野猫通常是无害的,许多宠物猫只待在室内。许多犬主,除了同时也在养猫的人以外,都希望养猫也要办证。不过他们不可能说,政府没有要求“竞争性”宠物也需要办证,这剥夺了犬主受宪法保护的财产权,或导致他们受到了违宪的歧视。

我不觉得这个类比是成立的。狗和猫的确不同,狗有攻击性。但其实有一些狗,一点攻击性也没有。一样要办证。这一点倒是成立的:宠物狗要外出,但宠物猫大多数只待在室内。于是问题就来了,网约车待在市内么?在占据道路这个问题上,网约车、出租车、私家车,各种车,都是一样。

一个地方被堵得狠了,就会对私家车也有管制性质。中国人搞摇号拍牌,老外可能就会用这样的歧视性措施:有些道路,车上只有一名司机不可行驶。

这个类别没啥好值得喝彩的。

另外一个问题是,以美国汽车发达的程度,我的确相信uber上“共享”的可能性比较大。

2016-08-29

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2016-08-25

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2016-08-18

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Furthermore, the company’s increasing and solid community of economic specialists helps consumers create superior economical conclusions for the long essay editor haul. MassMutual Financial Party is actually a marketing title for Ma Mutual Life Insurance Company (MassMutual) and its associated businesses and sales associates. MassMutual is based in Springfield, Ma and its important affiliates contain: Babson Capital Management LLC; Baring Asset Management Confined; Foundation Property Experts LLC; The First Mercantile Trustcompany; MassMutual International LLC; MML Investors Services, LLC, Associate FINRA and SIPC; OppenheimerFunds, Inc.; Along with The MassMutual Trust Company, FSB. MassMutualis Retirement Services Department has been providing pension programs for over 65 years. It gives the full range of products for unification corporate, charitable and governmental employers’ defined-benefit, described info and nonqualified deferred compensation programs. Approximately 3 million participants are served by it. To learn more, visit www.massmutual.com or uncover MassMutual on YouTube, Twitter Facebook and Google+.

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For information regarding the Retirement Services Division of MassMutual, it’s also possible to visit we are retired or discover by massmutual.com on Facebook.com YouTube.com and /RetireSmart /RetireSmart. Copyright (d)2014 Ma Mutual Life Insurance Provider (MassMutual) and affiliates, Springfield, MA 01111-0001. All rights reserved. Contact: Jessica ORIGIN Retirement Services

2016-08-17

Those who supporter for that ban foundation their argument about the fact that both smokers and non-smokers alike fulfill in areas where smoking is allowed hence increasing the chances of a low smoker learning to be a secondary smoker, and so lead them to undergo precisely the same health problems a smoker would by simply being around those that light up. Those that are contrary to the bar starting their disagreement to the actuality every human being includes a right to do because they please. Controlled investigation has with time noted that cigarettes include fortythree carcinogenic chemicals out from the already-high amount of chemicals contained in cigarettes which lowers the amount of air that hemoglobin provides for the head and so essay writing service affects the fundamental nerves program (CNS), the center and particularly the lungs (Newman, 2009). Substances for example ammonia could cause asthma along with other respiratory disorders and infections. Furthermore, proponents of the bar have suggested that using tobacco can be an entry for the use and probable abuse of different intoxicating ingredients by the fresh in the society today. Smoking cigarettes continues to be glamorized into a great degree in ads and commercials nowadays and it has led to the increase in the number of young adults while in the community engaging in the routine. Their standard of living can be lowered by incarceration legally that is often as a result of the mistreatment of one other medicines that the youthful smokers could have usage of and may be illegal. Additionally, many smokers declare that from the period smoking they have already consumed reaches a second party it’s recently been highly-diluted and is therefore not so dangerous. Nonetheless, bearing in mind most of the harms that using tobacco has been noticed to trigger to a person’s wellness, whether smoker or secondary smoker, there is a for your contact to bar smoking in public places. Because of this of those effects, it would thus be sensible to think about the banning of smoking cigarettes in public locations.

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